Contemplating the ongoing turmoil in UK politics, on the eve of local elections (tomorrow 7 May), I find the Politico poll of polls helpful.
We can graphically see the dramatically changing fortunes of parties: the rise of anti-immigration parties (UKIP > Reform), and to a lesser extent the Greens. The collapse of support for the two main parties (Tories and Labour), from highs of +50% support to their present 18% each. The LibDems have been largely unable to capitalise on the discontent.
Starmer is on thin ice and the media is constantly speculating about Labour replacing him. Since the end of the Bliar administration in 2007 (19 years) we have had 7 PMs (two women), each averaging around half of their 5 year term (2.7 years), though this includes the shortest term in modern history (Truss: 50 days).
Of the 7, only 2 were appointed to the office by winning a general election (Cameron, Starmer). The others were all appointed mid-term. And just two (Brown, Sunak) were removed from office by a general election, the others were forced out by their own party. Starmer is incumbent, but likely to be replaced after tomorrow.
Reform will likely do well tomorrow and this will be considered a judgement on the present Labour Government and their weak neoliberal, commerce-centric agenda. Apart from the Greens, all the UK parties are neoliberal-capitalist in outlook now. Socialism is no longer a force at the national level (and hasn't been since the Bliar government 1997-2007).
However, at their present levels of support, Reform cannot win a general election or form a government on their own. Indeed, based on current polling, *no two parties* combined would get a majority. But notice how polls can change dramatically around election years. Our next general election is in 2029. And a hung parliament is by far the most likely outcome (cue jokes about hanging being too good for them...)
