22 Mar 2013

The Worst Recession Ever?

Here is NIESR's chart showing the path of recession and recovery in various previous downturns, updated for their estimate of monthly GDP, published March 12, 2013.

from Not the Treasury View

So certainly this is the longest recession ever. Indeed all this talk of double- and triple-dip recessions is meaningless. We're been in one long recession since 2008. Growth has been virtually zero for about 30 months or 2.5 years. It is 60 months - 5 years - since the peak of GDP was reached on the back of a massive debt fuelled bubble.

With the government determined to pursue reduction of the fiscal deficit at any cost, the stagnation will no doubt persist for the foreseeable future - based on what I've read I'd say at least another 10 years (2023).

We were going to have to pay for the debt bubble one way or another. The growth rates under New Labour were unrealistic and unsustainable precisely because they relied on everyone, including the government, borrowing money to finance spending. And it was spending rather than investment. Investments pay dividends but we have little to show for our spending spree.

And what will it take to get everyone to see that this is no ordinary recession?

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Keep is seemly & on-topic. Thanks.